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We are now operating live on the new server. WooHoo!  We have completed the database file transfer of the from the old server to the new server and we are now in the process of re-running all Strategies on the new server so their support files (for charts and spreadsheets) will match exactly what you last saw on the old server. This process may take two hours or so, during which you will not yet be able to access your personal account information. When this message is gone you will know the process is complete and you may then continue to create and monitor Strategies to your heart's content.   :^)

Thanks for your patience while we make SectorSurfer faster and better for everyone,

Scott Juds
Chief SectorSurfer
 

Market Sentiment & Direction Indicators
 Daily Charts, Data Download, and Performance Comparison






Welcome!

SectorSurfer levels the playing field with Wall Street by putting the power of award winning high performance investment algorithms in your hands. Its True Sector Rotation algorithm holds only the momentum leader during bull markets, and its StormGuard algorithm protects and grows your assets during bear markets. Only by owning the trend leader and avoiding the trend laggards can you simultaneously improve returns and reduce risk.




Introduction

Stock market sentiment indicators are designed to measure any of a number of market characteristics with the objective of helping you determine the market's probable future direction and helping improve your investment performance. Although there's no shortage of Stock Market Sentiment Indicators available online, actual trading examples are rare and typically don't demonstrate trading proficiency over long periods of time. However, occasionally a technical author will put an indicator to the test, as was done by: (1) Rob Hanna in "A Look At The S&P 500 Death Cross" where his tests of the famously hated Death Cross Indicator show it has erratically poor performance, and (2) Steve LeCompte in "AAII Investor Sentiment as a Stock Market Indicator" where tests of the AAII Sentiment Survey shows it has great hindsight correlation, but is negatively correlated to future returns. 

This page was designed to provide; (a) free daily charts for nine of the better market sentiment indicators, and (b) provide comparative testing of them over multiple decades with three different asset class strategies. While some of these indicators are available through SectorSurfer's StormGuard option, others are included here because of their notoriety, despite their comparatively poor performance. These indicators were independently developed to measure and react to the market in different ways, such as; maximum return, maximum safety, fast reaction, or Nasdaq vs. NYSE, but none come close to the performance provided by StormGaurd-Armor! 

Market Sentiment & Direction Indicators - Daily Charts

StormGuard-Armor Indicator   StormGuard-AQR Indicator   StormGuard-Std. Indicator

 • StormGuard-Armor: Adds volume, highs/lows and fuzzy logic analysis to StormGuard-Standard. SG triggers month-end only.
 • StormGuard-AQR: Same as StormGuard-Standard with a 3x acceleration when rebounding from a crash. SG triggers any day.
 • StormGuard-Standard: Double EMA 50-day of daily returns (x21), offset by .55%. SG triggers month-end only. 


Market Momentum Indicator   Value Sentiment Indicator   Death Cross Indicator

 • Market Momentum: A component of StormGuard-Armor. Double EMA 50-day of daily returns, modified by relative daily volume.
 • Value Sentiment: A component of StormGuard-Armor. Double EMA 15-day of ratio adjusted new highs and new lows.
 • Death Cross 50/200: The classic S&P500 SMA 50/200-day price crossover going down or up. SG triggers month-end only. 


Dr. Don's Double Cross Indicator   McClellan AD Oscillator   Delta Sentiment Indicator

 • Dr. Don's Double Cross: The EMA 75/300-day crossover for market exit, and the 50/200-day for entry. SG triggers month-end only.
 • McClellan AD Oscillator: The difference between the EMA-19d and EMA-39d of the ratio adjusted (RA) NYSE advances - declines.
 • Delta Market Sentiment: The position of ~3,600 stocks relative to a medium-term moving average. SG triggers month-end only.

Market Sentiment & Direction Indicator Comparative Performance

In the table and charts below, the performance of seven stock market sentiment indicators is evaluated for each of three major classifications of ETFs (broadly diversified, US sectors and world regions). These indicators are meant to determine whether it is a bull market (risk-on) or a bear market (risk-off). During a bull market the Strategy selects the trend leader to own at the end of each month from among the Strategy's candidate ETFs. During a bear market, the Strategy will either move to the safety of CASH or alternatively own a long-term treasury ETF, depending on its configuration. Performance for both of these Bear Market Strategy configurations is detailed below.  Please review the Bear Market Strategies page for a discussion on how hindsight selection bias can be avoided during bear markets using a well-designed Strategy that selects from a diverse set of asset classes that often (but not always) do well during a market crash. 

 

 • US Diversified ETFs Strategy

  True Sector Rotation Strategy using IVE, IVV, IVW, IWB, IWV, RSP, SPY, SPYG, MDYG and MDY.  (TLH bear symbol)

Stormuard-Armor Diversified ETFs StormGuard-Armor Performance Comparrison - Difersified ETFs StormGuard-Armor Performance Comparrison - Difersified ETFs
 

 • ETF SPDR Sectors Strategy

  True Sector Rotation Strategy using XLE, XLF, XLK, XLI, XLP, XLV, XLY, XRT, XHB, XPH, MDY and SPY.  (UST bear symbol)

Stormuard-Armor SPDR ETFs StormGuard-Armor Performance Comparrison - SPDR ETFs StormGuard-Armor Performance Comparrison - SPDR ETFs
 

 • ETF World Regions Strategy

  True Sector Rotation Strategy using DGT, EEM, EFA, EPP, FEZ, IEV, ILF, IOO, MDD, MDY, SPY and QQQ.  (TYD bear symbol) 

Stormuard-Armor World ETFs StormGuard-Armor Performance Comparrison - World ETFs StormGuard-Armor Performance Comparrison - World ETFs




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Getting Started

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