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What We Do:

We put the power of award winning high-performance investment algorithms in your hands. Our True Sector Rotation algorithms hold the momentum leader during bull markets and our Dual Defense algorithms mitigate bear market downside risk by selecting only defensive leaders. Both are required to simultaneously improve returns and reduce risk.

 




Who We Are:

Our technology and services are the result of more than three decades of research and development by SumGrowth Co-founder and CEO Scott Juds, a Stanford educated signal processing engineer. The company's first service, SectorSurfer, was launched in 2010. Today, over 25,000 online subscriber strategies and portfolios are processed daily. 

 



 Our Services:
  Individual Investor SectorSurfer Logo
Advisor / InstitutionalALphaDroid Logo
Advisor / Institutional AlphaSheet Logo Free for EveryoneDaily Brief Logo
Published IndexesMerlyn Indexes Logo
 

Videos:  Intro/DemoDeep Dive

SectorSurfer is a momentum strategy design and trading tool with integrated bear market strategies. Each month it selects the momentum leader from among 12 candidate stocks or funds of your choice and sends trade alerts. Layered Strategy-of-Strategies models can easily be built. You can keep it simple by importing one of our many ready-made momentum strategies, or take control and roll your own. Up to 30 strategies, starting at just $10 per month. Technical analysis is tough! Let our servers do the hard work while you go have a life! Try SectorSurfer for free.

Visit SectorSurfer


Videos:  Intro,  Demo,  Deep Dive

AlphaDroid is a professional portfolio management tool designed by and for investment advisors. High-performance momentum algorithms and integrated bear market strategies provide upside potential and downside defenses. Each month momentum leaders are selected from their candidate funds and trade alerts are sent. Build layered portfolios and strategy-of-strategies. Manage up to 1,000 high-performance investment models for just $699 per month. Better yet, The Alpha Sheet is included and the 30-day free trial will demonstrate its high-performance competitive value.

Visit AlphaDroid


Video Demo    Sample PDF

The Alpha Sheet delivers 16 superior model portfolios to your inbox at each monthly rebalance that include trade signals and client-friendly charts. Plus, you'll get our weekly Sunday Snapshot illustrating recent market activity. Our low-noise momentum signals improve the selection of bull market leaders and our Dual DefenseTM indicators provide much better bear market exits. Cost conscious RIAs and Family Offices need no longer to pay the high fees of outsourced investment professionals or high AUM bps of model managers. Your bottom-line operation costs matter!

Visit The Alpha Sheet


Videos:  Intro,  Trends,  Risk,  Design

The Alpha Daily Brief is a free service that provides useful bull-bear market indicators and guidance for designing and evaluating defensive momentum model portfolios of your own designs. You'll quickly learn what really matters.

• ETF Market Heat Map:
   Discover which trend is your friend.
• Market Risk Analysis:
   Know when to hold and when to fold.
• Bear Market Strategies:
   See how defensive strategies matter.
• Portfolio Design Evaluation Tool
   Test your own portfolio design ideas.

Visit The Alpha Daily Brief


Videos:  AI-GA,   Trends,  Risk 

SumGrowth Indexes offers a collection of Model Portfolio Indexes for license to ETF, Hedge Fund, and SMA managers in three primary categories:

• AI Genetic Algorithm Family:
   Eliminates hindsight selection bias
   problems in momentum strategies.
• NQ Tax-Efficient ETF Family:
  
Solves the tactical-trading short-term
   capital gains issue in taxable accts.
• TPT Sectors and Style Families:
   Most ETFs are market slices designed
   for trading. TPT can Improve them.

Visit SumGrowth Indexes




 Our Technology:
   Low Noise Momentum
 StormGuard
 Dual Defense Bear Market Strategy
Hindsight Bias
 

Videos:  Demo,  Details

Low-Noise Momentum Signals
A momentum strategy's performance depends on its ability to extract trend signals from noisy market data. Our low-noise signal processing algorithms employ the cross-disciplinary sciences of both Matched Filter Theory and Differential Signal Processing, which are the same technologies that enable WiFi, USB, iPhones, and remotely controlled rovers on Mars to perform so well. Simply put, cleaner momentum signals lead to better decisions.

See Momentum Heat Map


Videos:  Intro,  Details

StormGuard
Risk mitigation is a complex problem. Diversification’s passive risk dilution is just the start. Research shows that risk avoidance is the most proficient way to reduce risk. Particularly, avoidance of momentum laggards and bear markets. StormGuard assesses market risk using four key metrics: Trend, Momentum, Sentiment , and Volatility, and a dozen other confirmation indicators. Together they form a superb Bull-Bear indicator and trigger Bear Market Strategies.

See StormGuard Charts


Video:  Details

Dual Defense: Backstops
StormGuard™ acts as the first line of defense when market momentum fails. TrendGuard™ acts as a second line of defense by incorporating a Defensive Backstop to compete directly with the Model’s candidate funds for momentum leadership by providing a performance floor in case the candidate funds begin performing poorly separate from the broader market. It’s like having a guard dog at the front door and a guard dog at the back door to avoiding loss.

See Dual Defense Details


Videos:  Bear Demo

Bear Market Strategies
When our StormGuard market direction indicator signals that market conditions have become bearish, its integrated Bear Market Strategy automatically takes charge and substitutes a set of defensive fund candidates in place of the equity fund candidates employed during a bull market. Bear Market Strategies then select the momentum leader from among their defensive candidates, such as a variety of bond, treasury, and commodity funds.

See Bear Market Strategies


Videos:  FWPT   Genetic-Algo,

Hindsight Bias Removal
We remove hindsight bias in two ways:

 • Forward-Walk Progressive-Tuning
   FWPT tunes the momentum filter with
   prior data for use only in the future.
   Evaluations use out-of-sample data.

• Genetic Algorithm - Merlyn.AI
   A Genetic Algorithm evolves sets of
   momentum strategy candidate ETFs
   based on past performance and uses
   them only with out-of-sample data.

See Investopedia





 Temporal Portfolio Theory:

This Is Not Your Granddaddy's Portfolio Theory!

Temporal Portfolio Theory (TPT) is an extension to Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) that incorporates the analysis of temporal (time series) data in a manner that was simply not possible in 1952 when MPT was developed. Thus MPT was constrained to buy-and-hold diversify-and-rebalance models. Today, the advent of instant electronic market data and previously unimaginable computing power has changed everything. But TPT is not about the race to trade a microsecond faster, it's not about AI trying to tease out unseen predictive correlations, and it's not about creating one more temporal analysis indicator for today's technical trading platforms. 

It's About Noise Reduction and Risk Avoidance!

In 1948 Claude Shannon of Bell Labs proved that the probability of making a good decision is directly proportional to a system's Signal-to-Noise Ratio. In 1946 J. H. Van Vleck developed Matched Filter Theory to optimize Signal-to-Noise Ratio. In 1993 Jegadeesh and Titman published their seminal academic paper proving momentum exists in market data, but they used a 12-month Simple Moving Average for their momentum filter – definitely far from optimum. Furthermore, the optimum filter depends on the class of assets involved, varies with the market's temperament, and must deal with punctuated events. Solving these problems is what Temporal Portfolio Theory is all about. 

Temporal Portfolio Theory - Chapter 5 - PDF



 FinTech Leadership:

Scott Juds BiographySeven Faces of Risk Book

Deep Dives: Automated Polymorphic Momentum - PDF Satisfying the Prudent Man - PDF The Seven Faces of Risk Book - PDF




Temporal Portfolio Theory®

Reduce the Noise - Make Better Trades

 

Alpha Matters