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Tactically Conservative ... Bullish on Life!

Welcome!
Merlyn.AI represents a paradigm shift in ETF design. While most ETFs focus on a specific slice of the market, such as a particular sector, factor, theme, or asset class, Merlyn.AI sponsors ETFs designed to be complete, self-contained, tactical portfolio management systems in a tax-efficient ETF wrapper. Each month each ETF evaluates over 400 US ETFs across broad and divergent markets and select a portfolio that seeks to provide the five things investors want most (right). We believe superior investment decisions require proficient signal processing to reduce market noise and clarify the momentum signal. Based on our research, Merlyn.AI employs the most proficient signal processing methods available, many of which come from the same cross-disciplinary sciences that enable today's WiFi, USB, iPhones, and remotely controlled rovers on Mars. For more on this topic, please click the "Index Details" links below.


The Bull-Rider Bear-Fighter Index                (80/20 Growth Allocation)
The MAI Bull-Rider Bear-Fighter Index begins with an 80/20 equities/bonds allocation typical of a classic growth portfolio. Each of eight underlying momentum strategies selects one ETF (its momentum leader) for the portfolio to hold. During bull markets, the Index allocates 35% to sectors, 15% to countries, 10% to global regions, 10% to factors, 10% to style-mix, and 20% to bonds, treasuries, gold and the like. The index automatically allocates 100% to defensive ETFs when bear market strategies are signaled.  The Index additionally employs these methods to further improve performance:
- Advanced signal processing, that we call Temporal Portfolio Theory, to improve selection reliability;
- A Bull/Bear Indicator, StormGuard-Armor, to determine the market's bull vs. bear status;
Adaptive Tuning that seeks to eliminate hindsight bias in the momentum algorithm; 
Fuzzy Logic to better assess the market’s Bull vs. Bear status; and
Genetic Algorithms that evolve the strategies and seek to eliminate hindsight selection bias. 

Index Details


The Tactical Growth and Income Index             (30/70 Conservative Allocation)
The MAI Tactical Growth and Income Index begins with a 30/70 equities/bonds allocation typical of a classic conservative portfolio.  Each of eight underlying momentum strategies selects one ETF (its momentum leader) for the portfolio to hold.  During bull markets, the Index allocates 15% to sectors, 5% to countries, 5% to global regions, 5% to dividends, and 70% to bonds, treasuries, gold, and the like. The index automatically allocates 100% to defensive ETFs when bear market strategies are signaled. The Index additionally employs these methods to further improve performance:
- Advanced signal processing, that we call Temporal Portfolio Theory, to improve selection reliability;
- A Bull/Bear Indicator, StormGuard-Armor, to determine the market's bull vs. bear status;
Adaptive Tuning that seeks to eliminate hindsight bias in the momentum algorithm; 
Fuzzy Logic to better assess the market’s Bull vs. Bear status; and
Genetic Algorithms that evolve the strategies and seek to eliminate hindsight selection bias. 
 

Index Details


About Merlyn.AI
Merlyn.AI Corporation (MAI) is a Palo Alto-based exchange traded fund sponsor launched in January 2019 by two long-time friends, David Epstein and Scott Juds. MAI is exclusively licensed to create and market ETFs based on the Merlyn.AI technology developed by Seattle-based SumGrowth Strategies, LLC. Merlyn.AI is the result of more than three decades of research and development by MAI Co-Founder, Chairman and CEO Scott Juds, who discovered trends in market data using advanced signal processing in early 1992.

Scott Juds - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO of Merlyn.AI CorpScott Juds, Co-Founder, Chairman and CEO: The Stanford University and UW-Madison-educated electrical and computer engineer is the founder of Seattle-based SumGrowth Strategies (a decade-old company with two automated platforms - AlphaDroid for advisors and SectorSurfer for individual investors). Mr. Juds is the named inventor on more than 40 US and foreign patents, creator of Temporal Portfolio Theory (modern momentum investing using signal processing, match filtering, and adaptive technologies), and the author of Conquering the Seven Faces of Risk (FinTech Press 2017) and Photoelectric Sensors and Controls (Marcel Dekker 1988).

Dave Epstein - Co-Founder of Merlyn.AI CorpDavid Epstein, Co-Founder, is also the Founder and CEO of Epstein Advisors. Mr. Epstein, a DCI Fellow at Stanford University, teaches finance and business ethics as an adjunct professor at the University of San Francisco. He has served as a General Partner at Crosslink Capital, CEO of Sol Voltaics Raycer Graphics, and VP of Engineering at NextGen Kendal Sq Research. Mr. Epstein received his MBA from Boston University and his MSEE and BSEE from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Sue Guzman, COO Merlyn.AI CorpSue Guzman, COO: With an MS-Engineering Management degree from Stanford University and BSEE from UW-Madison, Ms. Guzman has three decades of successful corporate leadership experience in Blue Chip firms (Hewlett Packard and National Instruments), as well as new companies, such as fiber optics startup kSaria. These experiences led to her selection as CEO and General Manager (ret.) of Celerity Systems/Aeroflex Inc., a major supplier of broadband test and measurement products based in Cupertino, CA.  Aside from her duties at MAI, she is President of Canine Companions for Independence (South Bay), a nonprofit that trains highly skilled assistance dogs for placement with children and adults with disabilities— for free.

 

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